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Tax
Policy to Support a Growing U.S. Economy in a Competitive Global Marketplace
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CENTER
FOR STRATEGIC TAX REFORM
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TAX
POLICY WIRE
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Volume 1, Issue 4, June / July 2006
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If the American people knew the price of government, they would purchase a lot less of it. But until the Treasury's fledgling Dynamic Analysis Division (DAD) came along, government officials were very successful in keeping that information secret, both from themselves ("we'd rather not know") and from the voters ("they'd revolt if they knew"). The secret is beginning to leak out - but only barely. Voters are still being misled and government is still taxing and spending on the false assumptions that $1 spent on a bridge-to-nowhere costs $1 in tax revenue, and that $1 in government tax revenue costs the private economy only $1. In fact, the cost to the private sector of providing the government an additional $1 in tax revenue is about $2.50, and in some circumstances much more. Even academics on the left now acknowledge that taxes adversely affect economic performance and, therefore, when taxes go up, it is not just the private sector's after-tax income that goes down; its pre-tax income suffers as well. Thus, when the question is, "How much does it cost the private sector to provide government with another $1 in tax revenue?", the answer is $1 plus the amount by which people's incomes in the future are smaller than they otherwise would be, but for the negative effects that the tax increase has on economic growth. The amount of future pre-tax income that the private sector loses when government raises taxes varies, depending partly on whether the extra tax is on labor income or capital. Both respond to tax changes: declining when taxes go up and rebounding when taxes are reduced. But capital is particularly sensitive to taxes. The table below, based on our model, illustrates a range of results when the government attempts to raise an additional $1.
The mainstream story is told by line (c), where the government undertakes to raise $1 in additional tax revenue by an across-the-board rate increase calculated on a static basis to produce that result. It indeed does collect an additional $1 - in a mindless bookkeeping sense - but the economy responds negatively to higher taxes and, as a result, pre-tax incomes (and tax collections) are less than they otherwise would be. On net, the government ends up having collected only $0.68, as shown in column (1). The government "lost" this $0.32 because taxpayers lost $1.07 of pre-tax income that otherwise would have been produced and which would have been taxed at an assumed average marginal rate of 30 percent ($1.07 x .30 = $0.32). Up to this point in the story, the total cost to the private sector is $1.75 ($0.68 + 1.07), but the government has on net collected only $0.68 in tax. The government can continue to raise tax rates and ultimately net an additional $0.32, as shown in column (5), but that will cost the private sector another $0.50 in lost income, thereby bringing the total cost up to $2.57 per $1 of tax revenue. The story in line (c) about an across-the-board tax increase on both labor and capital is consistent with recent work by Martin Feldstein at Harvard as well as a recent paper by Gregory Mankiw, the former Bush administration advisor who is also at Harvard. Mankiw also recently performed a groundbreaking analysis of the economic response to a change in taxes solely on capital. His results are consistent with the additional story illustrated in line (d), where the total cost is $4.33 for $1 of additional tax revenue from capital. Mankiw also estimated the economic response from a tax change solely on labor income. Line (a) illustrates the result in the case of a $1 tax increase. The total cost is $1.68. Line (b) is consistent with the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of the short-term economic response to an across-the-board tax change and line (c) is consistent with CBO's estimate of the long-term response. By anybody's reasonable estimate, the bottom-line results are clear. The cost of an additional $1 in taxes and spending is much more than $1 - most probably $2 to $3 - and the real burden of taxes on the American people (counting lost income) is much greater than the government admits. If taxes were both reduced and reformed (so that the drag on economic performance per $1 of tax would be less), the economy would be larger, government would be smaller, and everyone would be better off. |
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PAUL
RYAN'S DYNAMIC DUO: COMBINED TAX AND BUDGET REFORM At the joint CSTR/Heritage
Seminar on July 18th, Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI), a leading member of
the Ways and Means Committee, emphasized the importance of his Legislative
Line-Item Veto Bill (H.R. 4890), which passed the House in mid-June. Furthermore,
in his view, budget and spending reform ought to be paired with tax reform
aimed at enhancing economic growth. "Line-item pork parer," By Paul Ryan, appeared in The Washington Times on June 22, 2006 |
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SOS:
SENATOR JUDD GREGG'S CALL FOR FEDERAL BUDGET REFORM Senator Gregg, Chairman
of the Budget Committee, recently introduced a far-reaching budget reform
bill, the purpose of which is to force action on many of the important
fiscal issues Congress would rather sidestep. The "Stop Over-Spending
Act of 2006" or the SOS Act, creates mechanisms to control government
spending, reduce the deficit, and reduce the unfunded promises in the
country's largest entitlement programs. The line-item veto would shift some power from Congress to the President; commissions shift power away from elected officials to outside experts; and triggers rely on defaults to replace the proactive type of decision-making one would hope to see demonstrated by Congress. But the fact is that Congress has not been willing to make hard choices. Given where we are in the business cycle and the forthcoming baby boom retirement-which starts in less than two years-a good case can be made for deficit reduction goals more aggressive than those in Senator Gregg's bill. |
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(The current goals
would allow Congress to increase the deficit in each of the next three
years before requiring deficit reduction in 2010 compared to the CBO current
baseline.) The ongoing abuses to emergency spending must be addressed
and the limits on emergency spending in the SOS Act would ratchet down
the amount of emergency spending permitted to historical levels. The Medicare
trigger would importantly focus attention on the growing costs of Medicare
and halt all new direct spending until the program's growing claim on
budgetary resources had been addressed. (Ultimately, controlling the costs
of Medicare and Medicaid will require more comprehensive reform.) Maya MacGuineas is the President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. She received her Master in Public Policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. "Stop Federal Overspending" by Senator Judd Gregg appeared in The Washington Times on June 21, 2006. |
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DISTINGUISHED ECONOMISTS LEAD DISCUSSION AT CSTR/HERITAGE SEMINAR Dr. Edward Lazear and Dr. Douglas Holtz-Eakin spoke at the CSTR/Heritage Seminar on July 18th. Dr. Lazear, who is Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors and was a member of the President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, explained the contribution made by the Bush tax cuts to the sustained level of high economic growth presently being experienced. Dr. Holtz-Eakin, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office and the newly-appointed Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Paul A. Volker Chair in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, led a discussion about tax and spending policies. Both speakers received high praise from the more than fifty tax and economic policy experts who attended the seminar. |
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Questions or comments? Email us at info@cstr.org. |